How Can PFR be Greater than VPIP?

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How Can PFR be Greater than VPIP?

Postby BrianChina » Tue Feb 25, 2025 2:14 pm

I just noticed during a tournament that an opponent’s HUD had a PFR higher than his VPIP. It clicked in my mind that this shouldn’t be. It bugged for the whole tournament. I can’t think of an explanation. PFR is a subset of VPIP after all, not vice versa.

How often does this happen you’re wondering? I made a report and sucked it into Excel. My sample size was 12,454 tournaments, 418,690 hands, and 6,866 players. There were 304 players with this discrepancy.

While this might not look like a big deal it does negatively reflect on the accuracy overall of the VPIP and/or PFR stat(s), unless there’s an explanation I’m overlooking.

Can you enlighten me please?

PS. v4.18.7

Thanks
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Re: How Can PFR be Greater than VPIP?

Postby Flag_Hippo » Wed Feb 26, 2025 7:21 am

When a player has the opportunity to VPIP they may not have the opportunity to raise so it's possible for PFR to have a higher percentage than VPIP. For example if a player has a VPIP/PFR of 100/100 after 1 hand and then in the next hand that player faces an all-in from a larger stack then as of their first action they can only fold or call but not raise so if they fold in this hand their VPIP is now 50% (based on 2 hands) while PFR remains at 100% (based on 1 hand).
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Re: How Can PFR be Greater than VPIP?

Postby BrianChina » Wed Feb 26, 2025 11:57 am

Thanks Flag_Hippo, I rechecked my Excel ss and I see now that of the 304 opponent hands all instances were either low 2 digits or single digit number of hands. The one exception was an outlier with 126 hands which I'm sure was some sort of unique series of bets and raises. These low numbers are what one would expect according to your explanation.

Thanks for your quick response.
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Posts: 48
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